there was a poll that came out that said obama was up 55 in iowa. colorado is looking better for the republicans. host: someone writes on twitter, why don't we forget the election and use the polls instead? [laughter] guest: the democrats always have a much higher turnout in the early vote. their machine turns it out. one of the things we have seen among the democrats is that they have been trying to pump the numbers to play the game of who is winning and who is losing where the strategy for republicans is we turn out the votes for people who are least likely to vote. voters who have voted in the last four elections will vote in this election. republicans have a 355,000 vote lead in terms four by four voters. we are looking at better numbers than we have had. guest: if this were 2010, you would have a great point. in the last two elections, 90% of registered voters voted on election day. intensity does not matter as much in a presidential election as it matters now. republicans always do better with four by four voters. that is what happened in 2010